The US economy in March 2009 was in dire straits. Banks were on the verge of failure and the stock market was losing points every day. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq remained drains on the treasury and the GOP was vowing to battle any programs by the newly elected government. doom seemed certain and I predicted the Dow Jones would hit 6000 by the end of April. My number was based on guessanomics and my good friend, Andrew Pool, waged a bottle of good wine that the NYSE would rally around the bail-out.
"They have no choice." he said as we happily ate a plate of Chinese dumplings.
"I feel good about my prediction." The USA made nothing. All the news was bad. I had lost my job. We agreed on the wager and waited for the results and on April 30th I called Andrew to announce his winning a bottle of very good Cote de Beaune.
"I still think it's going to hit 6000." This was based on the trajectory of the Great Depression, during which the markets experienced a leveling off before the steep plunge to 10% of its worth in 1929.
"Never."
We bet another bottle of wine.
The end of summer.
A white wine this time.
It is the season.
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